Met Office Thunderstorm warnings – The no hype blog post (update).

** This blog post was originally put on Friday night and now has been updated on Saturday afternoon with the new warning issued for Wednesday from the Met Office**

We now have a brand new updated blog post on the thunderstorm risk for next week which can be found here as this is now outdated.

https://westernislesweather.com/2020/08/09/thunderstorm-risk-for-the-western-isles-sunday-9th-august-update/

Good evening all and welcome to a special blog post taking a look at the Thunderstorm warning issued by the Met Office for Monday and Tuesday which cover the entire UK. We are doing this blog post as a few people have contacted me with concerns and worries. The thunderstorm event at end of June is still very fresh in peoples minds.

So what do we know so far?

The Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday covering the entire UK. It is two warnings for each of Monday and Tuesday and covers each day.

This is the warning –

The latest warning updates can be found here –

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-08-07

Things to note from the text of the warning is how at this stage they are saying West of Scotland seems less likely to be affected and I think if this trend was to persist then we may end up being removed from the warning. Worth keeping an eye on.

There are some very high rainfall totals being mentioned alongside hail which again could be impactful to the areas that do get affected.

What will happen as we get closer to the event is the warning areas will more then likely get smaller and more defined from the Met Office giving a clearer idea of where the greatest risk of thunderstorms will occur.

** Saturday afternoon update **

On Saturday morning the Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms for the entire UK on Wednesday. As of 1300 Saturday afternoon the warnings remain the same for Monday and Tuesday. The latest can be found here.

Again looking at the text of the warning above there isn’t a great deal of difference between Monday, Tuesday and Wednesdays warning. We will have to wait till later in the week for greater clarity of the where the risk is most likely to be.

Why is there uncertainty?

We spoke to our good friend Dan Holley at Convection Weather and he explains to us why there is some uncertainty in the forecast.

Essentially the UK will be located on the edge of a hot airmass covering much of the nearby Continent – indeed, parts of SE England could see several consecutive days into the low-mid 30s Celsius. With this hot and unstable airmass in places, small disturbances in the upper atmosphere can help trigger thunderstorms – but at this early stage, there is a lot of uncertainty about exactly when and where in the UK and Ireland these may occur. Even when they do develop, they won’t affect everywhere necessarily, as is the localised nature of thunderstorms.

For the Western Isles, the risk is probably greatest on Tuesday, but some may still be possible on Monday or Wednesday, so certainly worth staying up-to-date with latest forecasts.

Dan’s thunderstorm forecasts can be found here http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Over the coming days things will become clearer and I will keep you up to date.

Will this be like the end of June storms?

This a question I have been asked a few times today and as ever I never have any issues answering questions. Yes the warning does cover area at this stage but again as mentioned above there is a lot uncertainty and things will change.

What happened on the the 25th of June was rare for us in the sense of intensity and duration of the event. I have witnessed many thunderstorm events whilst living on the islands but never on that scale and magnitude. Yes it can be worrying if thunderstorms are forecast but at this stage there is no point stressing out unjustly when a forecast can and will change.

The 25th of June event also had a greater degree of certainty and was easier to forecast even days in advance.

Avoid Clickbait.

A lot of news outlets and social media sites will try and grab you in with clickbait headlines. They will mash together bits of story to fit their own narrative and get you to click on the link. It can make already anxious people feel worse so try and avoid you can. Always check the Met Office website for the latest guidance. My posts and updates are always done in the best calm and level headed way I can. To give you the facts the information without the hype.

Please note –

PLEASE DO NOT USE Western Isles Weather for the protection of life and property and as your only source. These warnings will be posted by us, time permitting, to this page. Please seek out the Met Office website or app for the very latest updates. Use the SEPA Website or Floodline contact number for the very latest updates on flooding risk. In the event of any extreme weather, follow any and all advice or guidance given by local emergency planning, Police, HM Coastguard etc.

I hope this blog post has been useful and I will keep you bang up to date over the weekend and into next week.

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