Good morning and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 5th October until Wednesday 14th October.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 00z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 5th October
There is strong model agreement that Monday will see brisk Northerly and North Westerly winds. Spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Some sunshine at times and rather slack weather pattern with low pressure influencing
Tuesday 6th October
The GFS keeps low pressure sitting close by with spells of rain and some sunshine. EC hints at a mainly fine and dry day with some sunshine. A chilly day with brisk winds.
Wednesday 7th October
A number of differences between the two models. EC brings wet weather to the Western Isles with a shallow area of low pressure. Light winds. The GFS keeps us fine and dry for most of the day with light winds and sunshine and cloud. But brings a deep and vigours area of low pressure to the West of us which would bring rain later in the day.
Thursday 8th October
Again different with the GFS bringing the area of low pressure closer and still fairly deep at 968mb if this came off this would bring strong winds and further rain across the Western Isles. If this occurred winds would gust 60 to 70 mph. It is worth noting this is just one computer model run and one possible scenario. The EC just bring a shallow area of low pressure and would give us some spells of rain with mainly light wind.
Friday 9th October
The GFS keeps low pressure close to the Western Isles and this would keep conditions unsettled. With further spells of wind and rain. EC keep us fine and dry with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. Winds are light but winds coming from the North and North West.
Saturday 10th October
Not much change with the GFS keeping low pressure close by with brisk winds and unsettled conditions with further rain. EC brings in further spells of rain which would be heavy along with brisk winds.
11th, 12th, 13 and 14th October
Into the really silly long range. Anything this far out is in the land of fantasy and is really just to see what the trends are. At this range there are some indications of some more settled weather with high pressure taking charge lighter winds and drier conditions. A long way off as yet but worth keeping an eye on. We do tend to see a break from the Atlantic during September and October.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.