Good Afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 8th October until Saturday 17th October.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 8th October
The GFS models have been all over the place regarding Thursday. On the current model runs bring an area of low pressure across the Western Isles. Which would bring some strong winds and spells of heavy rain. With snow over the hills and mountains of mainland Scotland. If this comes off winds could gust 50 to 60 mph. However the EC model sends the low pressure across the English Channel. Another area of low pressure across Shetland which would bring us some rain at times this area of low pressure would be a lot shallower.
Friday 9th October
Seems to be some good model consensus of a chilly Northerly and North westerly airflow setting up bringing us in the Western Isles outbreaks of rain and blustery winds. With the risk of gales for a time in the morning.
Saturday 10th October
Both models are suggesting roughly the same thing with blustery start to the day with showers. But these showers clearing later. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph throughout the day. However high pressure builds in across the Atlantic. This starts to settled down the weather. With some drier conditions in the evening.
Sunday 11th October
High pressure dominated. However both GFS and EC suggesting some rain and drizzle across the islands on and off during the day. Winds are expected to be much lighter. High pressure sits to the South West and but low pressure and associated fronts could bring some rain in for a time.
Monday 12th October.
The GFS is suggesting mainly dry and settled conditions with brisk winds. High pressure dominates. The EC suggests that low pressure far to the North West and associated fronts will bring heavy rain across the islands. Winds will be blustery.
Tuesday 13th October
Big model differences. The GFS keeps us fine and dry across the Western Isles. Fine dry but windy with strong South Westerly airflow with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. The EC bring low pressure across Shetland and would bring us spells of rain and further blustery winds from the North West.
14th, 15th, 16 and 17th October
Into the really silly long range. Anything this far out is in the land of fantasy and is really just to see what the trends are. High pressure sits across most of the UK but strong airflow and further areas of low pressure moving across the North West of Scotland bringing further spells of rain and strong winds.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.