Good Afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Sunday 11th October until Tuesday 20th October.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Sunday 11th October
Good model agreement for Sunday across the Western Isles. An overcast day with mainly light winds. Rain is expected to move in later. The GFS has the rain moving in by 1800 but the EC has it moving in much later in the evening by the end of the day. High pressure dominates across the UK with the unsettled conditions for the far North West.
Monday 12th October
Again fairly good model agreement on Monday with rain during the early hours of the day. This clearing away to mainly dry with showers and some sunshine. Brisk winds. High pressure dominates.
Tuesday 13th October
Further model agreement with high pressure dominating our weather. A few scattered showers but mainly fine and dry. A mixture of sunshine and cloud. North Westerly winds but feeling chilly.
Wednesday 14th October
Total model agreement of a fine and dry day with light winds and a mixture of sunshine and cloud as high pressure dominates and keeps our weather fairly settled across the Western Isles.
Thursday 15th October
Some differences for next Thursday. The EC bring some mainly light rain and suggests a largely fine and dry with high pressure mainly dominating. The GFS brings a wet day across the Western Isles with some rain that will be heavy at times. Brisk winds. The rain mainly confined to the North West of the UK.
Friday 16th October
Back to strong model agreement again with high pressure dominating and would result in fine and dry conditions. It would be mainly settled with lighter winds.
17th, 18th,19th, 20th October
Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. However things are expected to stay fairly settled with rain towards the last couple of days and a risk of cold Northerly winds towards the end of the time period.
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