Good Evening and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 15th October until Saturday 24th October.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 12z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 15th October
Good model agreement on Thursday with low pressure to our West and fine dry day with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. A cold and possibly frost start to the day. Breezy and temps mainly in single figures.
Friday 16th October
High pressure stays in charge and there is good model agreement that the area of low pressure sinks Southwards. We are going to see a mixture of sunshine and cloud. Light winds. Temps in single figures.
Saturday 17th October
Again solid model agreement of mainly fine and dry conditions with a few scattered showers. A mixture of sunshine and cloud. It will be breezy with temps under 10C
Sunday 18th October
Not much change with high pressure staying firmly in charge. A mixture of sunshine and cloud with brisk winds. Temps again in the single figures. Low pressure sits to the South of the UK.
Monday 19th October
Slight model differences again. High pressure dominates. Some scattered showers but most places dry. EC has light winds for the Western Isles with low pressure in the North Sea. GFS has stronger winds from the North West keeping things breezy.
Tuesday 20th October.
Model disagreement for the 20th. EC has low pressure bring wet and windy weather to most of the UK but staying fine and dry for the Western isles. GFS keeps high pressure in charge but brisk winds and staying mainly dry.
21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th October
Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. However these days are looking increasing unsettled with a cold Northerly airflow setting up which would introduce rain and snow if this were to happen. This is just based on the GFS as the EC doesn’t go that far out but worth keeping an eye on.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
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