Good Evening and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Sunday 18th October until Tuesday 27th October.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 12z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Sunday 18th October
Seems to be good model agreement that a break down of the current settled weather with high pressure that we have seen over recent days and in the coming days. Looks overcast for Sunday with some rain moving into all parts. The rain could be heavy but some uncertainty at this stage with still mainly light winds.
Monday 19th October
Computer models are suggesting spells of rain heavy at times with blustery winds for Monday with an area of low pressure moving across the Western Isles. The EC has it a little deeper then the GFS. Winds expected to be from the North East. So likely to be chilly as well.
Tuesday 20th October
Some model divergence for next Tuesday with an area of low pressure moving across the UK with the EC bringing rain and North and North Easterly wind with spells of rain. The GFS suggests a cold airflow from the North with an area of low pressure in the North Sea much further to the East.
Wednesday 21st October
So again difference in model agreements with the EC bringing low pressure in North Sea with rain and showers and colder conditions. The GFS bring high pressure across the UK and more settled weather across the Western isles.
Thursday 22nd October
There is good model agreement that by next Thursday things will be more settled with high pressure in charge. Some rain on the GFS but mainly settled conditions. Expected to be chilly.
Friday 23rd October
Quite a large amount of model disagreement with the GFS suggesting high pressure across the UK. The EC suggesting low pressure with strong winds and spell of heavy rain with an area of low pressure pushing in.
24th, 25th, 26th and 27th October
Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. At this range high pressure keeps things settled based on the GFS with a Scandinavian high. Dry. chilly and breezy weather.
So it look the next few weeks look decidedly mixed with a lot of uncertainty between high and low pressure. With at this stage mainly high pressure winning.
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