Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 2nd November until Wednesday 11th November.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 2nd November
There is good model agreement of a day of wet weather across the Western Isles which will be heavy at times. The EC has a strong airflow and heavy rain. The GFS bringins a fairly deep area of low pressure which could see winds gusting 30 to 40 mph with further spells of heavy rain.
Tuesday 3rd November
Good model agreement that on Tuesday we would see a sunshine and showers day. Looking at the models for that day we would see North Westerly winds which would be conducive to squally showers. Winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. A colder airflow especially at this time of year so the showers have a chance of becoming wintry in nature.
Wednesday 4th November
Solid model agreement of high pressure becoming in charge of the weather across the UK. Likely we would see a fine and dry day next Wednesday with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. Winds would be lighter. Cold mornings and evenings would increase the risk of frost and ice. The EC has high pressure centre over Southern England and the GFS over central Scotland.
Thursday 5th November
Another fine and dry day would be on the cards. Plenty of sunshine and light winds with variable amounts of cloud. A cold start would run the risk of frost and ice. With high pressure dominating across the UK is fairly likely with strong confidence showing for a few days now both models we used in this blog post.
Friday 6th November
A long way off as yet but there is model agreement once again that high pressure stays in charge to start the day but with rain moving in from the South later in the day as high pressure moves back over Europe. The rain likely heavy later in the day with increasing winds.
Saturday 7th November
Again consistent model agreement that high pressure gives way to more unsettled weather for the Western Isles with heavy rain. Both models in agreement that an area of low pressure will move Northwards from the South and bring winds and spells of rain. A long way off as yet so will be dependent on how the high pressure system behaves during next week
8th, 9th, 10th and 11th November
Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. It is likely to remain fairly settled period with some spells of rain. No real signs of low pressure at this stage. Hopefully the high pressure happens next week as a break from the rain would be nice.
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