Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 5th November until Saturday 14th November.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 5th November
Good model agreement that high pressure will dominate across the Western Isles. The cloud is expected to dominate with some sunny spells. Winds will be gusting to 30 mph. The EC has high pressure centered over Europe and the GFS has the high pressure over the North Sea.
Friday 6th November
Again solid model agreement with high pressure dominating across the UK. It should be mainly settled across the Western Isles. Winds will be largely light with the cloud dominating some sunny spells. The EC brings in some patchy rain and the GFS at this stage keeps things dry.
Saturday 7th November
Some model disagreement for next Saturday. The EC brings a settled dry and sunny start with rain moving in later in the day. The GFS keeps things settled during the entire day with sunshine and cloud. The rain will stay over Wales according to the GFS and not moving as far North as the EC.
Sunday 8th November
Model disagreements for next Sunday. The EC brings an area of low pressure with rain which will be heavy at times across the Western Isles. The GFS however brings the area of low pressure across the centre of the UK and eventually out into the North Sea this would keep the Western Isles fine and dry with plenty of sunshine.
Monday 9th November
The EC has low pressure close to the Western Isles. Winds will be mainly light we are going to see some sunshine and showers. High pressure sits to our North West. The GFS has a ride of high pressure across the Western Isles and fine and dry conditions with sunshine and cloud. Winds would be fairly light.
Tuesday 10th November
Again some model disagreement and the EC has more settled conditions across the Western Isles. Mainly fine and dry with light winds and some sunshine. The GFS brings an area of low pressure to our North West with some rain that would be heavy at times with blustery winds.
11th, 12th, 13th, 14th November
Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. The GFS is suggesting a return to the low pressure systems moving of the Atlantic. We would see deep areas of low pressure moving past the North West of the Western Isles with strong winds and spells of heavy rain. Something to keep an eye on.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
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