Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 9th November until Saturday 18th November.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 9th November
Some good model agreement for Monday as the high pressure system declines we are likely to see some early morning rain in the Western Isles. But largely fine and dry conditions are expected once the rain clears. Winds would be from the South East so a mixture of sunshine and cloud.
Tuesday 10th November
Again good model agreement with a deep area of low pressure out in the Atlantic. A mixture of sunshine and cloud but the area of low pressure is no expected to impact us at this stage so conditions should stay fairly settled. The EC has the low pressure way to our West 973 mb and the GFS has it at 986 mb.
Wednesday 11th November
Once more good agreement that rain will move across the Western Isles. The rain will be heavy and likely to last throughout the day. The area of low pressure would shift Northwards but the low pressure system is not expected to impact us. High pressure builds behind.
Thursday 12th November
Some model differences for next Thursday. The EC brings in a large area of low pressure. Not a very deep area of low pressure but it would bring spells of rain which would be heavy at times. The GFS goes with a more settled theme across the Western Isles with high pressure dominating. With light winds and cloud.
Friday 13th November
Further model agreement for Friday 13th with the idea of rain moving across the Western Isles which would be heavy in places. Becoming drier and brighter with a hint of a ridge of high pressure as we go into Friday.
Saturday 14th November
Again further model agreement of further rain and showers across the Western Isles with a brisk airflow. Brisk winds with an area of low pressure out in the Atlantic. A long way off as yet.
15,16,17 and 18th November
Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. The GFS is suggesting rain and blustery winds for the 15th. High pressure moving in for the 16th and 17th before low pressure moves in again on the 18th.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
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