Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 16th November until Wednesday 25th November.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 16th November
Good model agreement with rain moving across the Western Isles after a dry start to the day with a brisk airflow. Another windy day with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. Heavy rain for the evening.
Tuesday 17th November
Again solid model agreement that we are going to see another windy day. Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. Further spells of heavy rain across the Western Isles. Winds will ease later with further spells of rain.
Wednesday 18th November
Staying unsettled across the Western Isles with spells of rain which will be heavy at time. Further areas of low pressure close to the UK so this will introduce further spells of rain. Winds won’t be as strong but still gusting 30 to 40 mph. A little cooler in the morning.
Thursday 19th November
Some model disagreement for next Thursday. With the EC showing some spells of rain but high pressure builds in and things become drier and more settled with sunshine and cloud. Lighter winds. The GFS keeps an area of low close to the Western Isles with further spells of rain which will be heavy at times and winds staying blustery. Gusting 30 to 40 mph.
Friday 20th November
Some good model agreement that high pressure will be in charge across the Western Isles with some spells of rain but mainly becoming fine and dry. But with being on the edge of the high pressure system it will mean things staying windy with winds likely gusting 40 to 50 mph.
Saturday 21st November
Again good model agreement with further spells of rain. This again will be heavy at times with a deep area of low pressure moving out in the Atlantic will bring spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Brisk winds once more.
22nd, 23th,24th and 25th November
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So the GFS suggests at this stage that things will stay unsettled with a brisk airflow with rain and blustery winds. Some hints of snow at the end of the time frame but a long way off. Will change.
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