Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 23rd November until Wednesday 2nd December.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 23rd November
There is good model agreement on next Monday that the unsettled conditions will continue across the Western Isles. We are going see further strong winds and heavy rain. The heaviest of the rain will be during the afternoon and evening as the mobile airflow continues across the Western Isles. A cold day with a chilly morning.
Tuesday 24th November
Good model agreement that the mobile airflow across the Western Isles. With areas of low pressure out to the West of us. The EC has low pressure to the North West and the GFS has low pressure to our South West. We are going to see further spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Brisk winds once again .
Wednesday 25th November
Again there is solid model agreement. After an unsettled start to the day with spells of rain we are going to see high pressure build across the Western Isles. This will bring colder conditions and drier weather for a time. The EC has the high pressure to the West of the Ireland. The GFS keeps the high pressure over the Azores.
Thursday 26th November
Some model disagreement for next Thursday with the EC keeping the high pressure firmly in control across the UK and fine and dry conditions across the islands. The GFS starts off with high pressure in charge but an area of low pressure will bring heavy rain across the Western Isles later in the day.
Friday 27th November
Total model disagreement for end next week. The EC has high pressure firmly in control of our weather with cold conditions and mainly dry weather. The GFS keeps low pressure close by and further spells of rain. heavy at times and brisk winds.
Saturday 28th November
Again some model disagreement with high pressure dominating according to the EC. Dry conditions with some spells of rain but mainly dry. The GFS brings a deep area of low pressure to the West of the UK which will bring bands of rain across the islands.
29th and 30th November, 1st and 2nd December
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. Brings areas of low pressure rotating around an area of high pressure which will bring further blustery winds and rain. Plenty to keep an eye on.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
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