Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 3rd December until Saturday 12th December.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 3rd December
A messy picture for the middle of next week. A cold day across the UK. The EC has wintry showers and rain across the Western Isles with some sunny spells. Low pressure across Ireland and Wales which would bring rain and snow showers here. The GFS has a more broad area of low pressure and this would stay in the Atlantic bringing rain and showers to the Western Isles. Some wintry showers and staying cold.
Friday 4th December
Good model agreement for next Friday with low pressure of the UK. EC keeps the low pressure over the UK with spells of rain heavy at times. Some wintry and blustery winds across the UK. The GFS has the low pressure into the channel. Rain at times with sunny spells across the Western Isles. Staying cold again.
Saturday 5th December
The EC shifts the low pressure further South from the UK and high pressure builds in and starts to calm things down across the Western Isles. The GFS keeps out weather mainly fine dry and settled with a slack weather pattern across the Western Isles. Also a developing area of low pressure across North West England with rain.
Sunday 6th December
Some model differences. The EC builds high pressure across the UK. A dry start for the Western Isles. But a developing area of low pressure would bring rain into the Western Isles later in the day. The GFS moves low pressure across the Western Isles with snow across the Hills and mountain across the West of Scotland.
Monday 7th December
Again further model disagreements the EC has a decaying area of low pressure over the Western Isles. Some rain at times but becoming drier with lighter winds. The GFS keeps a weak area of low pressure near to the Western Isles bringing spells of rain at times but winds staying mainly light.
Tuesday 8th December
The EC brings low pressure across England and Wales. Some rain in the Western Isles but mainly settled here. The GFS keeps low pressure close to the Western isles and moves off the North Coast of Scotland and another one close to the East coast. This would bring us some spells of rain at times and breezy conditions.
9th, 10th, 11th and 12th December
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. The GFS shows high pressure moving in from the North across the UK and settling things right down across the Western Isles. A long way off as yet.
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