Hello and welcome to our first White Christmas forecast for 2021. How is it that time of year already? I think a lot of us would like some snow on Christmas day another tough year we have had. Not enough to disrupt travel but enough for it to be white and festive.
In this first update of the season, we are going to talk about white Christmas as a whole. What the chances of a white Christmas are and when I am going to be doing updates this year. It is worth keeping in mind that most of the snow photos used in these updates are taken from across the years as we don’t have that many white Christmases in the Western Isles.
So this year I will be down twice weekly white Christmas forecasts up until the 15th of December the forecasts will then either be daily or every other day right up till the big day.
Historic White Christmas in the Western Isles and the UK
The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. On Average, the UK sees 3.9 snow days in December and 4.2 snow days in March so you’re more likely to see a white Easter than a white Christmas.
This is an image from Christmas Eve 2010
So when was the last white Christmas? Below from the Met Office
My first winter in 2004 in the Western Isles produced a white Christmas
1995 for another white Christmas in the Western Isles – This winter when I was in Lancashire was a big reason why I got into weather
Again above image from the Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/library-and-archive/library/publications/factsheets/factsheet_5-white-christmas.pdf
These are the deepest snows at Christmas on record from the Met Office
Clisham taken by Tashia Forster
So what does this year have in store?
So it’s far too early to know what this Christmas has in store. It’s a long way off over 3 weeks away. A lot of the models are showing a fairly cold start to the month with some long range models learning towards a milder mid month.
We should have a better picture in 7 days time.
So at this stage, I am suggesting we have a
50% chance of a White Christmas 2020
Callanish Stones – Shannon Child
Thanks for reading