Hello and welcome to our first White Christmas forecast for 2020. How is it that time of year already. I think a lot of us would like some snow on Christmas day after the year we have had. Not enough to disrupt travel but enough for it to be white and festive.
In this first update of the season we are going to talk about white Christmas as a whole. What the chances of a white christmas are and when I am going to be doing updates this year. It is worth keeping in mind that most of the snow photos used in these updates are taken from across the years as we don’t that many white christmases in the Western Isles.
So this year I will be down twice weekly white christmas forecasts up until the 15th December the forecasts will then either be daily or every other day right up till the big day.
Historic White Christmas in the Western Isles and the UK
The last widespread white christmas in the UK was 2010. On Average the UK sees 3.9 snow days in December and 4.2 snow days in March so your more likely to see a white Easter then a white Christmas.
This was image from Christmas Eve 2010
This from the Met Office which was produced in 2019 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/white-christmas
My first winter in 2004 in the Western Isles produced a white Christmas
1995 for another white Christmas in the Western Isles – This winter when I was lancashire was a big reason why I got into weather
Again above image from the Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/library-and-archive/library/publications/factsheets/factsheet_5-white-christmas.pdf
These are the deepest snows at christmas on record from the Met Office
So what does this year have in store?
So its far far to early to know what this Christmas has in store. Its a long way off over 3 weeks away. Some of the very long range forecasts are going for an unsettled end of the month. However this should be taken with a large pinch of salt as we just don’t know. Most of the long range forecast models don’t go out this far yet.
The cold spell over the next few days across the Western Isles was only well forecast about 5 day ago.
So at this stage I am suggesting we have a
50% chance of a White Christmas 2020