Hello and welcome to the 3rd White Christmas forecast. We are now coming to the GFS time frame for Christmas Eve and tomorrow will show Christmas Day. So we are still looking at trends. Christmas is still over 2 weeks away. The GFS which is the Global Forecasting System based in the USA and the model runs come out 4 times a day. These times are 00Z, 06z, 12z and 18z.
So how is it looking?
So as we can only go up to Christmas Eve at the moment. The GFS 12Z goes out 6 am. At this stage it is showing snow showers across the Western Isles. Also a cold airmass sits across Scotland with colder air coming down from the North. So yes this is positive at this stage. But this is such a long way off as yet. Like I said we are looking at trends at this stage. The Previous model run has cold air again across Scotland with some rain and wintry showers for Christmas Eve. Finally the 00z model run from today shows high pressure across the UK and some cold air across Scotland but no rain. The next update I will post on Friday which we will have the first Christmas Day model run and hopefully the cold weather trend continues.
So based on the latest model run information and the trend at this stage I am going to go for a 65% chance of Western Isles White Christmas.