Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 14th December until Thursday 24th December.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 14th December
Solid model agreement for next Monday with low pressure dominating the weather with spells of rain moving across the Western Isles. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Low pressure would sit to the West of the UK. Both the GFS and EC suggest the same pressure. Keeping on the mild side.
Tuesday 15th December
Some good model agreement again with next Tuesday. A few showers with plenty of sunshine in the breaks in the cloud. Winds will ease as the low pressure system our West moves away. Staying fairly mild. An interesting and deep area of low pressure system to the South West of Ireland according to the GFS. But the EC has no low pressure system.
Wednesday 16th December
A fairly settled day across the Western Isles with light winds and a few scattered showers. Both the GFS and EC bring the deep area of low pressure across the UK but would not cause us any issues at this stage across the Western isles but with it being a week away its worth keeping an eye on if the track changes. Back to the Western Isles and there is good agreement about it becoming colder again.
Thursday 17th December
Again some good model agreement with high pressure building for a time across Scotland. This would settle things down across the Western Isles with mainly fine and dry conditions. A few scattered showers and it will feel chilly. The EC has low pressure in the North Sea and a brisk airflow for us. The GFS has a broad area of low pressure across Ireland.
Friday 18th December
Lots of differences for next Friday with the EC bringing a deep area of low pressure between us and Ireland. This would bring strong winds and heavy rain across the Western Isles. Snow over the higher grounds of Scotland. The GFS keeps the Western Isles drier but low pressure over North East Scotland and one over Northern Ireland would give us a brisk airflow.
Saturday 19th December
Model disagreements again with the EC showing low pressure system moving across England and Wales this would bring blustery winds and rain to the Western Isles. The GFS has low pressure to the North of Scotland which would bring blustery winds and rain to the Western Isles.
20th, 21st, 22nd 23rd and 24th December
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. The fun up to Christmas and the GFS keeps things unsettled across the Western Isles with further wind and rain with wintry showers.
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