We are now 5 days away from the big day and we are starting to come into a more reliable time frame for Christmas Day. We have 3 computer models to look at. The GFS and ECMWF as mentioned before. We now also have the ICON a German Weather model.
Well the news isn’t good at all. We are going to see a cold middle of this week but by the end of the week we will see a cold start to Christmas Day and then this will be followed by things becoming milder throughout the day. Winds will also increase gusting 30 to 40 mph. A band of heavy rain will move in later in the day. Despite the cold start we are not expecting to see any wintry showers. There is good model support on this between both the GFS and EC. The Icon is also suggesting the same. This supported across multiple model runs so looking likely to be mild with temos up towards double figures.
Still on the positive side if you are wanting snow there are still plenty of chances between now and the end of winter.
So based on the latest model run information and the trends at this stage I am going to go for a 35% chance of Western Isles White Christmas.
Next update will be on Tuesday evening.