Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Sunday 31st January until Tuesday 9th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Sunday 31st January
Some good model agreement for Sunday with high pressure starting the day across the Western Isles with mainly fine and dry conditions but a brisk wind to start the day. Winds will be blustery throughout the day. Rain will move into the islands later in the day. This could be wintry at times. The risk of ice again first thing as temperatures drop. The EC has low pressure to our North West. The GFS has it closer to the islands.
Monday 1st February
Again good model agreement for next Monday. Rain and snow will move across the Western isles. Some blustery winds. The EC has low pressure and weather fronts away to our West. The GFS brings low pressure close to the Western Isles and winds gusting to 50 mph.
Tuesday 2nd February
Model agreement again with the EC having a broad area of low pressure to our North West. This will bring rain and showers and blustery winds across the Western Isles. This rain will be heavy at times. The GFS has low pressure closer to us and to our West. We will see breezy conditions with some rain and showers and once again turning milder with temps heading up towards double figures.
Wednesday 3rd February
Some model disagreements for next Wednesday with the EC keeping the broad area of low pressure sitting to out North West and High pressure over the North Sea. Rain and showers will move across the Western Isles with some blustery winds. Staying on the mild. The GFS brings rain which will be heavy at times as the low pressure that was close to us Southward. It will become drier and brighter later.
Thursday 4th February
Some model differences for next Thursday with the EC finally moving the low pressure system away but as it moves away bringing spells of rain which will be heavy at times but becoming drier and brighter behind as the rain clears. The GFS on the other hand gives a fine dry and settled day with high pressure building in with sunshine and cloud and light winds.
Friday 5th February
Again some model differences the EC brings rain and showers but mainly fine and dry conditions with a deep area of low pressure sitting to the South West of the UK. The GFS keeps high pressure across the UK. Mainly fine and dry with a few showers moving in later.
6th, 7th, 8th and 9th February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that things will stay unsettled with rain and showers. Areas of low pressure moving in with some sleet and snow showers. Some dry spells but mainly staying unsettled.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.