Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 7th January until Saturday 16th January.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 7th January
Some good model agreement for Next Thursday with high pressure again staying over the Atlantic and a more Northerly airflow. The EC suggests a few showers moving down from the North. The GFS again high pressure but with a colder airflow and wintry showers with a risk of snow moving down from the North. It would be a cold day with blustery winds.
Friday 8th January
Some solid model agreement for next Friday. High pressure builds once again from the Atlantic. This will be bring drier weather conditions. But we are likely to see rain moving across the islands. This rain will be light mostly according to the EC but the GFS brings in heavier spells of rain again later in the day. Blustery winds once again and feeling cold.
Saturday 9th January
Some model disagreements for next Saturday. The EC brings us some spells of rain and these will be heavy at times with high pressure moving in for a time during the morning before rain moves in later. The GFS however brings in a spell of snow showers as low pressure system moves down from the North. If this were to happen we would see sleet and snow showers, with a chance of a snow covering.
Sunday 10th January
Again model disagreements with the EC suggesting we would see spells of rain throughout most of the day. This rain will be heavy and persistent. This would be accompanied by blustery winds. The GFS on the other hand suggests the low pressure mentioned above would sink southwards and conditions across the islands would become more settled for a time before rain moves in later.
Monday 11th January
Further model disagreements with the EC bringing areas of low pressure across the Western Isles. These would bring spells of rain. Heavy at times and blustery winds. The GFS brings spells of rain. Sunny spells and again coming down from the North which will be wintry at times.
Tuesday 12th January
The EC settles things down. We would see fine dry and settled conditions across the islands. It would be breezy but milder. The GFS starts with rain becoming settled with more wintry showers moving in later.
13th, 14th, 15th and 16th January
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS suggests cold air moving down from the North with further risk of snow and sleet showers. Staying cold.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.