Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 25th January until Wednesday 3rd February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 25th January
Good model agreement for next Monday. A few showers in the morning. These will be wintry at times. High pressure moves in. Becoming drier with some sunshine. Winds will be light. It is likely to be a cold day with frost and ice in the morning but becoming milder as the day goes on. High pressure sits over Scotland and the next weather system awaits out in the Atlantic.
Tuesday 26th January
Some model agreement for next Tuesday with a weather system moving in from the Atlantic. This will bring rain and blustery winds across the Western Isles. This will bring sleet and snow showers at times. The EC has low pressure system staying out in the Atlantic. The GFS brings the area of low pressure closer to the Western Isles and will bring spells of rain which will be heavy at times and blustery winds.
Wednesday 27th January
Again further model agreement for next Wednesday. We are going to see a dry start to the day. An area of low pressure will move past Scotland to our West. This low will deepen and bring spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Alongside blustery winds which will gust up to 50 mph. The EC has the low to our North West and the GFS has it to our South West.
Thursday 28th January
Again both models keep conditions unsettled across the Western Isles. The EC bring spells of rain heavy with several areas of low pressure close to the Western Isles with blustery winds. The GFS suggests a more settled start to the day with a deepening area of low pressure moving across the Western Isles with strong winds and outbreaks of rain heavy at times.
Friday 29th January
Some model difference for next Friday. On the start of Friday the EC model suggests areas of low pressure around Scotland with further spells of rain and blustery winds but this is expected to clear away as the day goes on. The GFS bring in another fairly deep area of low pressure moving across the Western Isles. This will bring spells of heavy and blustery winds.
Saturday 30th January
Model differences on again. The EC keeps things settled across the Western Isles to start the day. However an area of low pressure is expected to move across the islands later in the day. Bringing rain heavy at times and strong winds. The GFS suggests a brisk airflow moving across the islands will rain and wintry showers. Winds would coming from the North West so likely squally showers.
31st January, 1st, 2nd and 3rd February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests high pressure building across the islands. This would settled things down and turning it colder with lighter winds.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.