Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 28th January until Saturday 6th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 28th January
Some good model agreement for next Thursday with the EC bring two areas of low pressure close to the Western Isles. This will bring rain and blustery winds to the islands. However there is a indicate that the low pressure will stall and weaken as the day goes on. The GFS keeps the low pressure system out in the Atlantic. This low pressure system would bring some heavy rain and blustery winds across the Western Isles.
Friday 29th January
Some very good model agreement with next Friday. With it stay breezy across the islands with winds of 20 to 40 mph. A few overnight showers with these clearing away as the day goes on. High pressure builds in with frost and ice and sunshine. Winds will ease as the day goes on. Elsewhere the EC brings a low pressure with rain and blustery winds across the England and Wales. The GFS keeps the low out to sea.
Saturday 30th January
Little change for next Saturday with good model agreement with another cold and settled day. High pressure firmly in charge across the Western Isles. It will be icy and frosty once again with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. A few scattered showers with light winds. The EC bring wintry showers for England and the GFS has high pressure in charge across the entire UK with calm dry conditions.
Sunday 31st January
Some good model agreement for the final day of the month with a weather system moving across the UK. Now the EC bring strong winds across the Western Isles. Nothing to significant but it would be fairly windy with a few scattered showers. The rain and snow would move across Northern Ireland, England and Wales. The GFS also suggests strong winds from this weather system. It also moves it further North and this would bring spells of rain and snow across the Western Isles. Lot of uncertainty as yet.
Monday 1st February
Once more strong model agreements for next Monday. The EC suggests multiple bands of rain moving across the rain. This will be heavy with blustery winds. A risk of some snow at times. The GFS keeps us mainly dry to start to the day before heavy rain moving in as the evening goes on. The EC has the low pressure out to our South West. The GFS has the centre of the low to our North West.
Tuesday 2nd February
Again fairly consistent model agreement that this will be an unsettled day. The EC brings a low pressure system close to the Western Isles with spells of rain. This rain will be heavy and wintry at times with strong winds. The GFS has low further out in the Atlantic but this will bring spells of showery rain which will be heavy at times.
3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th February.
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that things will stay unsettled with low pressure systems moving across the islands bring spells of rain heavy at times and wintry showers.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.