Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Wednesday 3rd February until Friday 12th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Wednesday 3rd February
Good model agreement for next Wednesday. Both models suggests an area of low pressure close to Ireland with a strong airflow will bring blustery winds across the islands. The EC suggests that we will see spells of rain as well as the blustery winds. The GFS also shows the blustery winds but the rain stays away from the Western Isles. Both models have the low pressure over Ireland.
Thursday 4th February
Good model agreement once again that low pressure will remain over Ireland and blustery Easterly winds over the Western Isles. Basically a rinse and repeat of Wednesday. The only difference being is the low slowly moves across Ireland and towards the Irish Sea. The EC bring rain and wintry showers to the island and those blustery winds. The GFS gives us blustery winds but keeps things mainly dry.
Friday 5th February
Some model differences for next Friday. The EC sinks the low pressure system slowly southward across the Irish Sea. We would see some rain across the Western Isles but winds will ease down. The GFS sees that area of low pressure dissipate. Cold air moving across the Western Isles. This would bring some sleet and snow showers across the islands.
Saturday 6th February
Some slight model differences for next Saturday. EC builds high pressure over central Scotland. This would result in fine and dry but cold conditions across the Western Isles. The GFS also has high pressure in charge but we would still see more in the way of wintry showers and blustery winds.
Sunday 7th February
Some model agreement for next Sunday. With the EC suggesting high pressure will be in charge across the Western Isles. A fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud will be cold. But rain and sleet will move into Uist and Barra later in the day. The GFS slowly builds in high pressure as the day goes on. A few wintry showers.
Monday 8th February
Big differences on this day. A long way off but the EC bring heavy rain and wintry showers across the islands with blustery winds. The GFS keeps high pressure in charge with some some showers and these wintry at times.
9th, 10th, 11th and 12th February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests high pressure in charge to start the period but weather systems moving into towards the 11th and 12th.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.