Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 8th February until Wednesday 17th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 8th February
Some good model agreement that next Monday we will see the cold air still coming in from the East. Snow for large parts of the UK. For us in the Western Isles we are likely to see sleet and snow showers. Frost and ice again. Some sunshine and staying cold. Both models agree with this outcome the EC suggests more in the way of snow.
Tuesday 9th February
Again good model agreement that the cold airflow from the east continues. More snow for large parts of the Eastern half of the UK. Us in the Western Isles we are going to see cold and icy conditions. Wintry showers but plenty of sunshine. The GFS suggests more in the way in the way of sunshine and the EC shows more cloud. Lighter winds and frost and ice. Feeling cold.
Wednesday 10th February
Some good model agreement for us in the Western Isles but a little different for the UK as a whole. The EC bring low pressure to the South West. Bringing rain and snow across Ireland and wintry showers slowly into the rest of the UK. The GFS brings the low in quicker with rain sleet and snow into Ireland. For us in the Western Isles good model agreement for a cold and icy day with sunshine and cloud with a few wintry showers. South Easterly winds.
Thursday 11th February
Some slight model differences. The EC sends a band of snow across the UK. The GFS keeps the low to the South. For us in the Western Isles mainly fine and dry with sunshine and cloud. A few wintry showers the EC keeps the winds brisk. The GFS strengthens the winds gusting 30 to 40 mph again some wintry showers and icy.
Friday 12th February
Some model differences for next Friday. The EC brings snow across large parts of the UK but here in the Western Isles we would see mainly fine and dry conditions with sunshine and cloud. Winds would be light. The GFS bring rain and snow across the UK. For us in the Western Isles we are going to see a windier day but mainly dry with some sunshine.
Saturday 13th February
For next Saturday there is basically a rinse and repeat of Friday with the EC showing fine dry conditions across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. The GFS brings in slightly stronger winds but mainly dry and staying cold.
14th, 15th, 16th and 17th February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that things could turn more unsettled with some areas of low pressure moving close to the Western Isles. Uncertainty at this range.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
