Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 11th February until Saturday 20th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 11th February
Some good model agreement for next Thursday. High pressure to the East and low pressure to the West. We are going to see isobars tighten agreement with that from both the EC and GFS. The EC keeps conditions dry but blustery winds across the islands. The GFS suggests a dry start but rain moving in later and this eventually could turn to snow for Uist and Barra.
Friday 12th February
Good model agreement from both the GFS. We are going to see rain sleet and snow showers throughout the day with some sunshine at times. Winds will increase as the isobars tighten to across Uist and Barra. Gusting 40 to 50 mph for Lewis and Harris gusting 60 to possibly 70 mph for Uist and Barra. Worth keeping an eye on. It will feel cold in the strong wind chill.
Saturday 13th February
Again good model agreement with the EC and GFS. High pressure over Europe and low pressure to the West of the UK. We are going to see strong winds once again gusting 50 to 60 mph. Possibly 70 mph for Uist and Barra. Rain and showers once again with sleet and snow showers. Feeling cold in the wind chill with winds coming from the South East.
Sunday 14th February
Good model agreement with the low pressure moving further away. The isobars move further apart. So we will see the winds finally starting to ease but again still gusting to 40 mph for Uist and Barra. A mainly overcast day with some sunny spells.
Monday 15th February – Tuesday 16th February
Both days are showing exactly the same over both day with high pressure over the UK which builds in from the East. Fine dry and cold conditions. The EC suggests more in the way of sunshine and the GFS suggests more in the way of cloud. We would also see brisk winds.
17th, 18th, 19th and 20th February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests high pressure dominating across the UK cold but mainly dry and settled weather. A long way off yet but some good signals.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.