Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Sunday 14th February until Tuesday 23th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Sunday 14th February
We are going to see a windy day across the Western Isles on Sunday. We are going to see rain which will be heavy at times with the cloud dominating. Some sunny spells and milder. Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph for the Uist and Barra gusting 60 to 70 mph.
Monday 15th February
Some good model agreement for next Monday with the EC having low pressure to the West of the UK. The GFS also has a low pressure a little further to the West of the UK. Here in the Western some higher temperatures. We are going to see winds gusting 20 to 40 mph gusting 50 to 60 mph for the Uist and Barra. Some sunny spells. The EC brings some rain heavy at times the GFS keeps conditions dry across the Islands.
Tuesday 16th February
Some model disagreements for next Tuesday. The EC brings the above mentioned low pressure close to the Western Isles which will bring further rain and strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. The GFS sends the low pressure away to the North West with rain for the islands. It starts off windy but the winds ease later. Milder conditions with temps heading towards double figures.
Wednesday 17th February
Some big model differences for next Wednesday. The EC keeps a brisk and strong airflow across the Western isles. It will stay winds with some rain and showers at times. The GFS on the other hand eases the wind and high pressure attempts to build in from the East again and bringing in colder air. Drier and sunnier conditions.
Thursday 18th February
Again some differences with the EC having a brisk strong airflow set up across the Western Isles with blustery winds but mainly dry. High pressure sits across much of the UK with low pressure out to the far South West. The GFS keeps high pressure in firm control across the islands with lighter winds and some decent and prolonged sunshine.
Friday 19th February
Some good model agreement for next Friday with high pressure in charge across the UK. Weak areas of low pressure skirt up west of the UK and we could see some bands of mainly light rain across the islands with brisk winds. Some uncertainty as yet.
20th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that conditions will stay settled with high pressure in charge. Fine dry with sunshine and cloud. Feeling cold again. A long way off yet but could bring us more settled weather for the second half of the month.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
** featured image credit goes to Chris Bell. Many thanks to Chris for allowing us to use it. **