Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 18th February until Saturday 27th February.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 18th February
Some model differences for next Thursday. We are going to see some rain as low pressure system moves across Scotland. We will see somer blustery winds in the islands but the strongest of the winds will be over Scotland and South for the Western Isles. The GFS has a weaker low pressure whilst the EC has deeper low pressure system. Staying mild.
Friday 19th February
Good model agreement with the EC and GFS showing rain and strong winds moving across the Western Isles. This rain will be heavy. Accompanied by blustery winds as well. Both have low pressure out to our West which will bring the wind and the rain.
Saturday 20th February
Some model agreement for next Saturday with rain feeding across the EC suggests the Western Isles with blustery winds and milder conditions with temps up into double figures. The GFS brings a fairly deep area of low pressure past close to the Western Isles. With heavy rain and strong winds some very strong winds on the Southern flank of this system but a long way off as yet.
Sunday 21st February
Both model develop high pressure across the UK but the EC has rain across the Western Isles. This would be slow moving and heavy again at this time frame some uncertainty. The GFS brings in rain and showers and blustery winds but becoming drier later.
Monday 22nd February
Both models keep high pressure across the UK. With the EC giving us blustery winds and showery rain. The GFS keeps things dry with strong Southerly winds and keeping things mild.
Tuesday 23rd February
Some model differences again. The EC pushes in a deep area of low pressure with rain and this would bring strong winds as well. The GFS keeps conditions settled but breezy with occasional scattered showers as high pressure builds in further across the UK.
24th, 25th, 26th and 27th February
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that conditions will stay settled with high pressure in charge for the first 3 days before rain and wintry showers move in later on the Saturday but this is a long way off as yet.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.