Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 23rd February until Saturday 4th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Tuesday 23rd February
Good model agreement with next Tuesday with both the GFS and the EC showing low pressure moving across the North West of Scotland. In the Western Isles we are going to see rain that will be heavy at times and possible persistent. The cloud would dominate with fairly strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. Staying on the mild side.
Wednesday 24th February
Some slight model disagreements to next Wednesday. The EC has low pressure far to our North West. A mainly dry day with a few scattered showers but blustery winds. The GFS has the low pressure again to our North West which would bring further spells of rain heavier rain than what the EC is suggesting. Again blustery winds.
Thursday 25th February
Again further model agreement for next Thursday with both GFS and the EC building high pressure across the UK with a few scattered showers. The EC has high pressure centred over the South coast of the UK. The GFS has high pressure further south over Europe. For us in the Western Isles it will be a breezy day with a few scattered showers and staying mild.
Friday 26th February
Model differences for next Friday. The EC model suggests the high pressure building in further across the UK. This would result in fine and dry conditions across the Western Isles. Lighter winds with sunshine and cloud. High pressure centred over Northern Ireland. The GFS keeps high pressure close by but brings in some atlantic weather with some rain and showers in the Western Isles. With some Brisk winds here.
Saturday 27th February
Again model differences once again. The EC has high pressure firmly in charge across the UK with the high centred over the middle of England. We would see fine dry and sunny conditions with light winds. The GFS brings rain and showers across the UK. It would result in brisk winds across the Western Isles with further spells of rain.
Sunday 28th February
More model differences with the EC having high pressure across the UK with fine and dry conditions but we could see some rain moving across the Western Isles. A colder day. But it is a long way off as yet. The GFS on the other hand has morning rain before building in high pressure across the UK. This high pressure system based across Norway. We would see conditions becoming more settled into the Western Isles.
1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that high pressure will remain in charge across most of the UK with mainly fine and dry conditions with occasional spells of rain as we head into Spring.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
** Featured image comes from Magz Macleod **