Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 25th February until Saturday 6th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 25th February
Some good model agreement for next Thursday with high pressure over the Southern half of the UK low pressure sits well to the north of the UK and this will allow a brisk airflow across the Western isles with rain and showers. These again would be heavy at times. Winds would be around the 40 to 50 mph mark but nothing to significant. Staying on the milder side for this time of year.
Friday 26th February
Further model agreement for next Friday. High pressure stays centered over Northern Europe. This keeps things mainly settled across much of the UK but as the far to often said phrase. Mainly fine and dry across the UK except the far North West of Scotland and this will be the case next Friday with bands of rain moving across the islands and these will be heavy at times. We would see blustery winds once again. A little bit colder then we have seen of late.
Saturday 27th February
Good model agreement for next Saturday with high pressure firmly in charge of the UK weather. The EC has high pressure over Wales and the GFS has it over Wales. Being on the edge of it in the Western Isles we are likely to see mainly dry conditions but with brisk winds. Some sunshine and scattered showers.
Sunday 28th February
Some disagreement for next Sunday. The EC brings a band of rain across the Western isles which would bring some heavy rain at times along with blustery winds with high pressure across the Western Isles. Now the GFS keeps conditions dryer across the Western isles with brisk winds which will possibly reach gale force. High pressure still centered over Europe keeping things settled for most of the UK.
Monday 1st March
Some good model agreement for a week on Monday with high pressure dominating across the UK. For the Western Isles the winds finally start to ease for the day. However a band of rain will move across the Western isles and this will be heavy in places before clearing away into the later evening.
Tuesday 2nd March
Again even for a week on Tuesday there is more model agreement. High pressure builds back in across the UK according to the EC model. This would bring brisk winds across the Western Isles with a day of sunshine and showers. The GFS builds the high pressure further West over Ireland. This would bring rain and showers but lighter winds across the Western Isles.
3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests high pressure in charge and across the UK. As ever with us being on the edge of this high pressure we will see rain and showers but a few dry day. Brisk winds likely for most days.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.