Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Sunday 28th February until Tuesday 9th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Sunday 28th February
Some good model agreement for next Sunday with high pressure across the UK. High pressure dominates with high pressure either centred across England our across Europe. For us in the Western Isles we are going to see brisk winds with some sunny spells winds gusting 20 to 40 mph. It would be mainly fine and dry day. Both models agree on this outcome for Sunday.
Monday 1st March
Again strong model agreement for next Monday with high pressure across the UK. A weak area of low pressure moves into Southern England based on the GFS. Both models have fine and dry conditions across the Western Isles along with brisk winds. Some sunshine but the cloud will largely dominate. Staying on the mild side.
Tuesday 2nd March
Some model agreement for next Tuesday. The EC moves high pressure over Europe and a slack airflow across the UK. Some rain and scattered showers for the Western isles. Brisk winds as well with some sunshine. The EC builds high pressure over Scotland but some rain and scattered showers moving across the Western Isles but mainly light winds.
Wednesday 3rd March
Model disagreement for next Wednesday. The EC brings rain and showers across the Western Isles with brisk winds. The GFS keeps high pressure across UK centred over Wales this would bring fine and dry conditions across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. Winds will be brisk once again.
Thursday 4th March
Again model differences next Thursday. The EC keeps the High pressure across the UK with brisk winds in the North West and for us in the Western Isles with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. It will stay on the mild side. The GFS on the other hand starts off mainly fine and dry but a weather front will bring rain across the Western Isles and this rain will be heavy at times. High pressure across the UK for most it will be settled.
Friday 5th March
Some good model agreement for next Friday with things turning a little more unsettled. The EC brings in some rain and showers but winds would be mainly light. Some sunny but mainly overcast day. The GFS brings in rain sleet and snow showers across the Western Isles with winds coming in from the West. These showers would likely be squally.
6th, 7th, 8th and 9th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that we could see things turning colder again with sleet and snow showers and brisk winds. Staying unsettled and wintry across this time period. One to keep an eye on.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.