Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 4th March until Saturday 13th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 4th March
High pressure stays in control across the UK. The high pressure is now across the North of Scotland. Both models agree on some overnight rain and showers. Winds will be coming down from the North and North East will make it feel cold and there is a slight risk of some frost and ice. The rest of the day is expected to be fine and dry. Overcast with some sunny spells.
Friday 5th March
Once again good model agreement with high pressure in charge of the weather across the UK. The EC has the high pressure over Northern Scotland and the GFS has high pressure in the North Sea. This means for us in the Western Isles we are likely to see fine and dry conditions. A mixture of sunshine and cloud with mainly light winds. Another colder day with again a slight risk of some frost and ice.
Saturday 6th March
Some model disagreement for next Saturday. The EC keeps high pressure across the UK. With the high centered in the North Sea. Now for us in the Western Isles we are likely to see brisk winds with some rain and drizzle. The GFS has high pressure over the UK. But also brings in a shallow area of low pressure to our West and this would introduced some rain. Slightly milder weather than the previous few days.
Sunday 7th March
Some model differences for next Sunday. The EC still hangs on to the High pressure which is sitting over South East England. This would result in brisk winds across the Western isles with some rain and showers with the cloud dominating. The GFS slowly moves the low pressure system away and as it clears we are going to see a slack airflow with brisk winds. This would bring in some rain and showers.
Monday 8th March
Very different model solutions for next Monday. The EC shows high pressure declining away into Europe. It will remain fine dry and settled for the Western Isles. With a low pressure system moving into South West England. Now the GFS brings in a band of rain across the Western Isles to start the day. Then a rapidly deepening low pressure system would bring heavy rain and strong winds to the Western Isles later in the day. As you can see a long way off as yet so plenty of uncertainty.
Tuesday 9th March
Again lots of uncertainty and differences for a week on Tuesday. The EC builds in high pressure across the UK and fine dry conditions with Sunshine and cloud. Winds will be light. The GFS on the other hand keeps the low pressure system mentioned above moving to our North West. This would bring strong winds with heavy rain and wintry showers. Feeling cold in the wind chill.
10th, 11th, 12th and 13th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that we could see colder conditions once again with sleet and snow showers. A next deep area of low pressure moves in later in the period so a lot to keep an eye on. Winter isn’t fully done yet.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
Featured image for this post is – Traigh Mhor by Muriel Dawn Mackenzie