Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 1st April until Saturday 10th April.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 1st April
High pressure dominate across the UK. Both computer models agree on this. We are going to see a day of sunshine and cloud. It will feel cold wirth winds coming down from the North. Some wall to wall sunshine. We could see some frost and ice first thing in the morning but becoming milder as the day goes on.
Friday 2nd April
Good model agreement for next Friday. High pressure dominates across the UK. For us in the Western Isles we are expecting to see a day of sunshine. Wall to wall sunshine for most. Light winds and feeling on the milder side. The GFS has the high pressure centre 1041 in the Atlantic.
Saturday 3rd April
Good model agreement once again for next Saturday. High pressure dominating across the UK. The EC has some slightly stronger winds gusting 10 to 30 mph. The GFS has light winder under 20 mph. We are going to see some decent and prolonged sunshine.
Sunday 4th April
Some model differences for next Sunday. The EC brings down cold air down from the North. A fine dry and sunny start to the day. However it is showing a band of rain moving down from the North with some wintry showers and possibly snow showers moving down behind it. Not unusual to get some snow in April worth keeping an eye on. The GFS however has no snow showers. A day of sunshine and cloud. Light winds from the North West. Feeling cold but dry.
Monday 5th April
More differences for next Monday. The EC bring sleet and snow showers across the Western isles with a cold airflow. These showers will be heavy at times and then turning milder where the snow will turn to rain. The GFS brings in sleet and snow showers for next Monday as low pressure system builds in. This would gives us some strong winds and wintry showers. Then turning to rain later. A long way off as yet but worth keeping an eye on.
Tuesday 6th April
Some model differences again for next Tuesday. A deep area of low pressure system moves in Ireland. Rain sleet and snow showers for us in the Western Isles according to the EC. The has GFS low pressure over Shetland and this would feed rain sleet and showers across the Western Isles. Blustery winds and feeling cold.
7th, 8th, 9th and 10th April.
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that high pressure will build in for the first few days before. Rain and returns for the last few days.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
Featured photo. Traigh Eais, Barra – Rachael Manford