Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 8th March until Wednesday 17th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 8th March
Model agreement for next Monday. We are going to see high pressure moving away and both the EC and the GFS suggesting that we will see a slack airflow moving across the UK. We are going to see spells of rain this will be heavy at times. The cloud dominating with winds gusting to 40 mph. Staying on the milder side.
Tuesday 9th March
Strong model agreement that a deep Atlantic low pressure system moving past the West of Scotland. Heavy rain and strong winds we could see winds gusting 60 to 70 mph. Behind it rain and snow showers. The EC has the low down to 958 mh the GFS has it down to 942 mb which would be rather deep for this time of the year and one to keep an eye on.
Wednesday 10th March
Again both models in agreement about next Wednesday with spells of rain. This will be heavy at times with sleet and snow. We are going to see strong winds and gales. Possibly severe gales during the early hours of the morning. The low pressure system moves across the North of the UK.
Thursday 11th March
Some model differences for next Thursday. The EC has low pressure moving down from the North with blustery winds and rain for the Western isles. The rain will be heavy at times. Gales are likely again. The GFS has a brisk airflow setting up from the North West. We will see rain sleet and snow showers. These will be squally at times.
Friday 12th March
Again model differences with the EC showing low pressure moving over Scotland. We would once again see blustery winds. Heavy rain at times. The GFS are shows the winds finally starting to slacken across the Western Isles. There will be rain and showers. These heavy at times. Some sunshine in between these showers.
Saturday 13th March
Again model differences for next Saturday. The EC suggest high pressure building in but this would allow a cold airflow setting up with the risk of sleet and snow showers moving across the islands with the winds easing and some sunny spells. The GFS brings in yet another area low pressure across the Western Isles. The rain will be heavy and possibly persistent with strong winds once again. Behind it once it clears away a showery airflow will set up.
14th, 15th, 16th and 17th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests we are going to see a continuation of the unsettled them with further spells of rain which would be heavy and and more blustery winds.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.