Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 15th March until Wednesday 24th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 15th March
Some good model agreement for next Monday with high pressure just South of the UK. Rain and showers will move across the Western isles. Winds will be much lighter then we have seen over the weekend. Some sunshine at times but the cloud will be mainly dominating. Feeling colder with the winds coming from the North West. The rain will mainly move in during the afternoon and evening.
Tuesday 16th March
Again further model agreement with next Tuesday. High pressure builds to the West of the UK according to the EC with fine dry and settled conditions across the Western Isles and mainly light winds. High pressure of 1039 mb. The GFS has lingering rain and showers but this will clear away as high pressure builds across the UK. The rest of the day sunshine and cloud. High pressure of 1036 mb.
Wednesday 17th March
Good model agreement once again with next Wednesday. High pressure sits to the West of the UK and we should see a fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud. Feeling chilly at times with winds coming from the North but should be feeling pleasant in the Sunshine. The EC has high pressure of 1041 and GFS 1038 mb.
Thursday 18th March
Again strong model agreement that high pressure will dominate our weather next Thursday. The EC has high pressure 1038 way out West in the Atlantic with fine dry and settled conditions across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. Mainly light winds. There is a chance of some light rain showers later in the day. The GFS has high pressure closer to the Western Isles 1034 mb. Fine and dry day with light winds and sunshine and cloud.
Friday 19th March
Some slight differences for next Friday the EC has high pressure out blocking in the Atlantic. But this slowly slides away southwards and we could see some scattered showers moving into the Western Isles but it should be mainly fine and dry with sunshine and cloud. High pressure of 1035 mb. The GFS has a fine and dry day across the Western isles with sunshine and cloud. Light winds. Multiple areas of high pressure across the UK keeping things settled. 1033 mb across in the Atlantic and high pressure 1031 mb over Eastern Scotland.
Saturday 20th March
Some model differences for next Saturday. The EC has high pressure slowing moving away South West wards. High pressure still dominates our weather and we are going to see a mainly fine and dry day with some sunshine and cloud but a few scattered showers moving in for the later half of the day. The GFS keeps high pressure to the West of the UK with fine and dry settled conditions with sunshine and cloud light winds.
21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests we are going to see a a colder period for a time with a risk of some wintry showers. Before high pressure builds back in once again. A long way off as yet so plenty of uncertainty.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
All chart data comes from WXcharts.com
featured photo is Hushinish – Debbie Neilson