Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 18th March until Saturday 27th March.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 18th March
Some good model agreement for next Thursday. High pressure in charge across the UK. Some light rain will move across the Islands in the early morning. A day of sunshine and cloud with light winds. Good model agreement on this with high pressure centred out to the West.
Friday 19th March
Little change for next Friday with high pressure dominates across the UK. Both the EC and the GFS have agreement on this. High pressure centred to the West of Ireland. A day of sunshine and cloud across the islands with light winds. It should be a dry day.
Saturday 20th March
Some slight model differences for next Saturday. The EC keeps high pressure across the Western Isles. Conditions will be fine and dry with sunshine and cloud. Some scattered showers with light winds across the islands. The GFS also has high pressure in charge across the UK but a slightly more mobile airflow with brisk winds across the islands. Mainly fine and dry with sunshine and cloud with a few scattered showers.
Sunday 21st March
Some slight model differences again next Sunday. High pressure dominates across the UK according to the EC. A mainly fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud. A few scattered showers but mainly dry. The GFS is suggesting some rain moving into Uist and Barra later in the day. Before high pressure moves back in. Brisk winds with sunshine and cloud.
Monday 22nd March
Good model agreement for next Monday with high pressure across the UK. Winds coming from the East according to the EC and the North East according to the GFS. Mainly fine and dry with sunshine and cloud. Winds will be brisk. It is expected to be dry.
Tuesday 23rd March
Solid model agreement for a week on Tuesday. Both have high pressure across the UK with a strong airflow across the Western Isles bringing brisk winds with sunshine and cloud. It is expected to be dry. Rain far out to the West but this is blocked by high pressure from moving in from the West.
24th 25th, 26th and 27th March
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that we are going to see more mobile conditions setting up with areas of low pressure moving across Scotland with the risk of rain and some winder conditions.
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.
are featured image is – Traigh Iar, Sollas taken by Rhona Skivington