Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 5th April until Wednesday 14th April.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 5th April
Good model agreement for next Monday as cold air comes streaming down from the North. Both the GFS and the EC both have cold air with gales and wintry showers across the Western Isles as the air feeds down from the North. Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph possibly gusting to 60 mph. Sleet and snow showers which could give a dusting or covering of snow for a time. Feeling cold in the wind chill. Some of the snow showers turning to rain for a time.
Tuesday 6th April
Strong model agreement once again for next Tuesday between both the EC and the GFS once again. The cold continues to stream down from the North. Bring rain sleet and snow showers across the islands. The EC suggests that the sleet and snow showers will ease into the evening. Winds gusting to gale force around 40 mph and once more feeling cold.
Wednesday 7th April
Some slight model differences for next Wednesday. The EC moves an area of low pressure into Scotland across the Western Isles which would bring blustery winds and rain sleet and snow showers. Feeling cold again. The GFS also moves an area of low pressure to the North of Scotland. A band of rain would move across the islands later in the day after some sleet and snow showers in the morning.
Thursday 8th April
Some good model agreement for next Thursday as the low pressure system moves across Scotland into the North Sea. Bringing cold air and strong winds which could be severe at times gusting 70 mph. Behind the low further rain sleet and snow across the Western isles with some rain mixed in. Feeling bitterly cold. A long way off as yet but worth keeping an eye on.
Friday 9th April
Good model agreement for next Friday. Low pressure slides into Europe and high pressure builds out into the Atlantic. But the cold airflow continues across the country with rain sleet and snow showers for us in the Western Isles. Once again feeling cold with blustery winds possibly reaching gale force. Both the GFS and EC have this occurring.
Saturday 10th April
Some model differences for next Saturday. The EC suggest that we will see the winds finally easing. A few more sleet and snow showers. But these also easing. The GFS builds in high pressure across the Western Isles with things becoming fine and dry with some sunshine. Winds ease but the next weather system waits out to the West which will bring rain further rain overnight into the Sunday.
11th, 12th, 13th and 14th April
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that a weather system will bring further rain sleet and snow towards the middle of this time period before things become more settled with fine dry and settled weather as high pressure system builds in
Thanks for reading any feedback is always welcomed.