Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 15th April until Saturday 24th April.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 15th April
Some good model agreement for next Thursday with high pressure firmly in place across the UK. The EC suggests fine and dry conditions with sunshine and cloud. A brisk wind with fairly tight isobars with winds gusting to 40 mph. Cloud is expected to increase as the day goes on with a weather front bringing rain to the far West. The GFS also has high pressure in charge with fine dry and sunny weather light winds and keeps the weather front miles out into the Atlantic. Temps expected to get into double figures.
Friday 16th April
Some model differences for next Friday. The EC suggests high pressure staying firm across the UK. With the band of rain moving across the Western Isles. This would bring spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Brisk winds but not as strong as on Thursday. The GFS suggests that band of rain would move closer to the Western Isles and eventually fizzling out. A fine dry day with brisk winds and sunshine and cloud.
Saturday 17th April
Some slight model differences. The EC suggests that the rain will move away from the Western Isles to allow a fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud. A mild airflow. But once again seeing brisk winds. The GFS is suggesting that we will see a day of sunshine and cloud with a risk of some scattered showers. Mainly fine and dry and on the mild side with brisk winds once again.
Sunday 18th April
Some model differences once again. The EC suggests high pressure over the UK but again another band of rain moves across the islands during next Sunday bringing rain during the afternoon. Dry for the morning and evening with brisk winds. Sunshine and cloud. The GFS suggests light winds and it will be dry. A day of sunshine and cloud. Some prolonged spells of sunshine and staying on the mild side.
Monday 19th April
Again further model differences. Both the EC and GFS build high pressure over Europe and the Atlantic. The EC suggests a few scattered showers but for the most part it should stay fine and dry with brisk winds and plenty of cloud. The GFS on the on the other hand pushes a band of rain across the Islands. This will be heavy at times. Brisk winds.
Tuesday 20th April
Again model differences. The EC suggests that high pressure will decline to the South of the UK and we will see rain and showers moving across the Western Isles. Feeling cooler with plenty of cloud. The GFS on the other hand keeps the high pressure firmly in charge with sunshine and cloud. Feeling warm with plenty of sunshine and light winds.
21st 22nd 23rd and 24th April
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that high pressure stays firmly in charge with sunshine and cloud. Lighter winds and becoming warmer. Worth keeping an eye on.
Featured photo taken by Ceitlyn Macphail