Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 26th April until Wednesday 5th May
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 26th April
Some good model agreement for next Monday. High pressure in charge of the weather across the UK. A low pressure system is expected to track across the UK moving in from the North West southwards. But the GFS and EC support this happening and bring spells of rain which would be heavy at times during Monday but clearing away later in the day to allow sunshine and cloud. Brisk winds.
Tuesday 27th April
Some slight model differences for next Tuesday. The EC suggested that mainly settled conditions will persist across the Western Isles with a few scattered showers. High pressure dominates for much of the UK with some rain here. The GFS develops an area of low pressure across North Scotland. Spells of rain for us in the Western isles with brisk winds. This would bring in some cold air. Snow and wintry showers across the Highlands of Scotland.
Wednesday 28th April
Again some model differences for next Wednesday. The EC has low pressure to the South West of the UK. High pressure mainly in charge our weather. A day of sunshine and cloud for us in the Western Isles with some scattered showers. Brisk winds. The GFS has rain and showers across England and Wales. Scattered showers for Scotland as high pressure builds to the far North West. It will feel cool as winds come in from the North East 10 to 20 mph and we will see a day of sunshine and scattered showers.
Thursday 29th April
Good model agreement for next Thursday. Both the GFS and EC suggesting high pressure will dominate the weather across the UK. For us in the Western Isles we are likely to see fine dry and settled weather with sunshine and cloud. Lighter winds and feeling milder.
Friday 30th April
Some fairly good model agreement for next Friday. The EC suggests high pressure across the UK with sunshine and cloud but brisk and winds with the odd scattered showers. The GFS suggests fine dry and settled weather with some decent and prolonged sunshine and light winds.
Saturday 1st May
Good model agreement for next Saturday with high pressure dominating across the UK. Fine dry and sunny weather across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. Light winds and feeling warm.
2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th May
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So with the GFS it suggests that we will see fine and dry settled with plenty of sunshine and feeling warm.
featured photo – Isle of Scarp – Mark Griffiths