Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update covering from Monday 31st May until Wednesday 9th June
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 31st May
Some model disagreement for next Monday. The EC brings a weather front across the UK and bring spells of rain across the Western isles which would be heavy at times with brisk winds with high pressure across the UK. The GFS keeps high pressure across the UK and the weather front stays out to sea and no rain for the Western isles with sunshine and cloud and staying warm.
Tuesday 1st June
Again model differences for next Tuesday. The EC has further spells of rain across the Western Isles with spells of rain heavy at times. But in between sunshine and cloud. High pressure builds back in later in the day. Now the GFS keeps conditions settled across the Western isles with some decent and prolonged sunshine and keeping us on the warm side. A more brisk airflow sets up across most of the UK with brisk winds.
Wednesday 2nd June
Again model differences. The EC keeps conditions settled across more of the UK with high pressure in charge. But again another band of rain moves across the UK during the afternoon before clearing into the evening. The GFS once again keeps conditions fine and dry across the Western Isles with warm conditions and wall to wall sunshine. Light winds but also develops an area of low pressure to the South West of the UK.
Thursday 3rd June
Again some slight model differences for next Thursday. The EC has high pressure in charge with a fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud along with brisk winds. An area of low pressure far to our North West. Now the GFS has a day of sunshine and showers. These will be heavy at times. The area of low pressure mentioned above moves across the Southern half of the country.
Friday 4th June
Some slight differences again. The EC has a mainly fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud with the odd scattered shower and brisk winds. The GFS has a weak area of low pressure across the North West of Scotland so it would be a day of sunshine and showers with brisk winds and feeling cooler in the brisk winds.
Saturday 5th June
Some good model agreement for next Saturday with both the EC and GFS building high pressure across the UK with sunshine and cloud across the Western Isles with lighter winds and feeling warm. The GFS has a few showers early in the day across the islands but these clearing as morning goes on.
6th, 7th, 8th and 9th June
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So the GFS is suggesting a mixture of sunshine and cloud with occasional scattered showers as high pressure dominates.
Featured photo – Scarista taken by Màiri Robertson Carrey