Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update covering from Thursday 3rd June until Saturday 12th June
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 3rd June
Some good model agreement for next Thursday both the EC and the GFS have a low pressure system close to Ireland. The EC brings some showers and sunshine for the Western Isles with brisk winds. The GFS also brings brisk winds with sunshine and cloud. Still on the mild side but keeps things dry.
Friday 4th June
Some model differences for next Friday. The EC moves the low pressure system past the Western Isles and we would see a cooler day with rain and showers which would be heavy at times. The GFS keeps things settled with fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud. Lighter winds.
Saturday 5th June
Again model differences. The EC has a day of sunshine and showers across the Western Isles with a deep area of low pressure moving up the North Sea. The GFS has an area of low pressure in the channel with rain and showers moving across the UK but for us in the Western Isles staying fine and dry with sunshine and cloud and brisk winds.
Sunday 6th June
Some big model differences. The EC drives the area of low pressure up the North Sea bringing rain and showers with windy conditions. For us in the Western Isles we would see spells of rain heavy at times before clearing into the evening. The GFS keeps things settled again with sunshine and cloud with light winds. High pressure across most of the UK with some showers
Monday 7th June
Some good model agreement for a week on Monday with both the EC and GFS having high pressure across the UK with some scattered showers over Northern Scotland this would be heavy at times. A mixture of sunshine and cloud. Winds would be mainly light.
Tuesday 8th june
Some model differences for a week on Tuesday. The EC keeps conditions settled with sunshine and cloud as high pressure dominates across the UK. The GFS bring an area of low pressure past the West of the UK and this would bring spells of rain and blustery winds to the Western Isles. Lots of uncertainty as yet.
9th, 10th, 11th and 12th
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So the GFS is suggesting that the first two days would be unsettled with rain and showers before high pressure builds back in with sunshine and cloud.
Featured photo – Loch Skipport old pier taken by Robyn