Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update covering from Monday 7th June until Wednesday 16th June
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Monday 7th June
Some good model agreement for next Monday. The EC has high pressure across the eastern half of the UK with brisk winds for us in the Western Isles we will see a mixture of sunshine and cloud with brisk winds. A risk of the odd scattered shower. The GFS has low pressure to the North West of the UK and high pressure declining across the North Sea. For us in the Western Isles a mixture of sunshine and showers with brisk winds.
Tuesday 8th June
Some good model agreement for next Tuesday. Both the EC and the GFS bring a band of heavy and slow moving rain across the Western Isles. The GFS has it later in the day then the EC which has it moving in earlier in the day. The best of the drier and brighter weather for the South East of England where high pressure dominates.
Wednesday 9th June
Some good model agreement for next Wednesday with brisk airflow across the UK. The rain moves away from the UK and a brisk airflow with plenty of cloud. The GFS brings further rain back in later in the day with brisk winds. The GFS has low pressure closer to the UK as the day progresses.
Thursday 10th June
Some model differences for next Thursday. The EC builds high pressure across the UK with sunshine and cloud. For us in the Western isles with sunshine and cloud. A few scattered showers and brisk winds. The GFS brings in another area of low pressure across the Western Isles with spells of rain which would be heavy with brisk winds possibly reaching gale force for time.
Friday 11th June
Again model differences for next Friday. The EC keeps high pressure across the UK with the centre over Northern Scotland with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. A few scattered showers and it would be breezy. The GFS shows that there would be rain and showers in the morning. Sunshine and cloud for the afternoon with further rain moving during the evening and brisk winds.
Saturday 12th June
Again further model differences with the high pressure building further to the North of the UK according to the EC with a day of sunshine and cloud. Decent and prolonged sunshine across the Western Isles but staying breezy. The GFS has a brisk air flow across the UK with rain and showers with winds coming in from the North West so keeping things cool.
13th, 14th, 15th and 16th June
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So the GFS is suggesting things staying unsettled with an area of low pressure system moving across Scotland with rain and showers and blustery winds for us here in the Western Isles.
Featured image from Morris K Macleod