Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update covering from Thursday 1st July until Saturday 10th July.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
Thursday 1st July
Some good model agreement for next Thursday with high pressure dominating. A day of sunshine and cloud. Some decent and prolonged sunshine at times for the Western Isles. Winds are expected to be light with winds under 20 mph and temps heading towards 20C a few showers for the rest of the UK but mainly dry elsewhere.
Friday 2nd July
Strong model agreement for next Friday with high pressure firmly in control. A day of sunshine and cloud for us in the western Isles. Light winds and temps in the high teens. Both the GFS and EC develop showers across the highlands but these fizzle out before reaching us. The EC also develops an area of low pressure to the South West of the UK.
Saturday 3rd July
Some model disagreement for next Saturday. The EC has low pressure to the South West of the UK. Rain and showers will move across the Western Isles which would be heavy at times. Some decent spells of sunshine in between. The GFS keeps conditions fine and dry with plenty of sunshine and feeling warm with light winds.
Sunday 4th July
Slight model differences for next Sunday. The EC has low pressure to the South West of the UK still and it will continue to feed showers across the Western Isles which will be heavy at times. some sunny spells and brisk winds. The GFS keeps high pressure dominating across the UK with fine dry and settled conditions for the start of the day and evening but some afternoon showers bubbling up.
Monday 5th July
Some big model differences for next Monday. The EC keeps the low pressure to the West of the UK and sends a deep area of low pressure up the middle of the UK bring heavy rain and blustery winds. Showers would move across the Western Isles with brisk winds at times. The GFS keeps things settled and suggesting becoming very warm for us. Possibly “hot” by are standards with temps up towards the low to mid 20s.
Tuesday 6th July
Again model differences for next Tuesday. The EC sends the above mentioned area of low pressure Northwards bring rain and showers to the Western Isles with brisk winds. Rain and showers for much of the UK. The GFS keeps high pressure across most of the UK with fine dry and settled weather feeling warm again with a low pressure to the west of the UK with heavy rain this would stay off sure but could change at this long time range so worth keeping an eye on.
7th, 8th, 9th and 10th July.
Now this is the really long range. So take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. So the GFS is suggesting that things would stay largely fine and dry settled and warm with showers at times which would be heavy at times.
Featured photo by Rosie Adey – Berneray.