Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 5th July to 10th July
The EC is showing for Monday and Tuesday next week low pressure dominating the weather across the UK with rain and showers moving across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. Wednesday the low pressure system moves away with showers before high pressure builds back in for the Western Isles. Thursday, Friday and Saturday sunshine and cloud with light winds. Some scattered showers mainly dry and temperatures around average in the mid to low teens.
GFS – Monday 5th to the 14th July.
The GFS is on board with the EC. Showing area of low pressure moving across the UK for Monday and Tuesday with rain and showers for the Western Isles along with brisk winds. Again showing the low pressure system moving away Wednesday with showers to start the day. Thursday, Friday and Saturday high pressure builds back in with fine dry weather with sunshine and cloud. More sunshine then the EC is showing and becoming warmer again. The GFS on the Sunday sends a low pressure system Eastwards which could bring some rain later in the day. Some showers for the Monday before becoming drier for the Monday. Then settling down with sunshine and cloud for the last few days of the time period to the 14th.
Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome. Featured image comes from John Clelland.