Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 12th July to Saturday 17th July
So the EC is showing low pressure across the UK for Monday with rain and showers moving across the UK. Showers for us in the Western isles but becoming drier and sunnier later. Tuesday low pressure becoming confined to South East England with sunshine and cloud. Dry with light winds for us in the Western Isles. For the Wednesday a dry start before a frontal system brings rain and showers and then high pressure builds back in. Thursday, Friday and Saturday high pressure dominates with light winds with sunshine and cloud. The odd scattered shower is possible.
GFS – Monday 12th to the Wednesday 21st July.
The GFS also has low pressure across the UK on Monday but fine dry conditions for the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. For next Tuesday the GFS again keeps high pressure across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the GFS has a brisk airflow across the Islands with sunshine and cloud with occasional spells of rain. Next Saturday and there is a suggestion of a low pressure system sitting to the North West of the UK bringing rain and showers to the islands. The final four days of the time period and the GFS keeps low pressure anchored to the North West of Scotland this would feed in showers keepin things mild with brisk winds some decent spells of sunshine in between.
Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome. Featured image comes from Tom McCluskie of Stornoway Harbour.