Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 19th July to Saturday 24th July
So the EC is suggesting high pressure across the UK for Monday with a mixture of sunshine and cloud across the Western Isles with a scattering of showers and it would be breezy but still feeling warm. Tuesday again high pressure in charge of the weather with sunshine and cloud for us in the Western isles. Onto Wednesday and again high pressure persists across the UK with showers breaking out. For us in the Western isles again a day of sunshine and cloud with scattered showers. The EC showers little change for next Thursday with sunshine and cloud. Friday low pressure to the West with rain moving into the Western isles which would be heavy later in the day. For a week on Saturday again mainly settled weather for much of the UK and a brisk airflow for us in the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud with scattered showers.
GFS – Monday 19th to the Wednesday 28st July.
The GFS also has low pressure across the UK on Monday but fine dry conditions for the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. For next Tuesday the GFS again keeps high pressure across the Western Isles with sunshine and cloud. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the GFS has a brisk airflow across the Islands with sunshine and cloud with occasional spells of rain. Next Saturday and there is a suggestion of a low pressure system sitting to the North West of the UK bringing rain and showers to the islands. The final four days of the time period and the GFS keeps low pressure anchored to the North West of Scotland this would feed in showers keepin things mild with brisk winds some decent spells of sunshine in between.
Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome. Featured photo comes from Annabel Campbell.