Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 26th July to Saturday 31st July
So the EC is suggesting low pressure system moving across the East of the UK. We are going to see a mixture of sunshine and cloud with a few scattered showers. For next Tuesday a slack airflow across the UK with rain and showers for us in the Western Isles which could be heavy at times. For the Wednesday it is showing an overcast day with some sunny spells and scattered showers which would clear as the day progresses. For the Thursday the EC suggests high pressure ridging moving across the country but an area of low pressure moving in from the West which would bring a mainly overcast day with a chance of some rain moving in later. For the Friday the area of low pressure moves across the Western Isles which could bring heavy rain and brisk winds. The Saturday low pressure sticks close by bringing further spells of rain for us. Brisk winds.
GFS – Monday 26th July to the Wednesday 4th August.
So the GFS is showing low pressure over North East Scotland for Monday. Fine dry and sunny weather for us in the Western Isles. For next Tuesday rain and showers with sunny spells and brisk winds. Wednesday an area of low pressure moves in across the Western Isles which will bring heavy rain and brisk winds. Thursday another area of low pressure moves in bringing heavy rain and brisk winds. For Friday and Saturday with sunshine and showers along with brisk winds as the low pressure systems clear away. For the final 4 days of the time period we will see brisk winds with sunshine and showers as further areas of low pressure move across the UK.
Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome. Featured photo comes from Colin Cameron