The mini long range forecast for the Western Isles – 5th August 2021

Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.

Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.

This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.

EC – Monday 9th August to Saturday 14th August

The EC is suggesting low pressure still dominates across the UK on Monday with sunshine and showers for us in the Western Isles with increasing sunshine later in the day with light winds. On Tuesday the EC is showing the first area of low pressure moving away to the North East the next area of low pressure moves in from the West. Showers to start the day but becoming fine dry and sunny later in the day for us in the Western Isles. For the Wednesday an area of low pressure moves in bringing heavy and at times persistent rain across the islands. There would also bring brisk winds. For Thursday the area of low pressure sits across Ireland this will bring brisk winds and spells of rain which will be heavy and persistent at times with some sunny spells in the breaks in the cloud. Friday the area of low pressure sits close by to the Western Isles with further spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Winds will be brisk at times. Saturday low pressure moves away to gives us fine dry and sunny conditions across the Western Isles.

GFS – Monday 9th August to the Wednesday 18th August.

The GFS is suggesting a brisk airflow across the Western isles with sunshine and cloud for the Monday as high pressure builds across the UK. Tuesday high pressure across much of the UK but a band rain will move across the Western isles after a dry start the rain will be heavy at times. Wednesday heavy rain as band of rain moves across Scotland. Behind it the GFS is suggesting high pressure builds behind with sunshine and cloud with lighter winds. Thursday, Friday and Saturday low pressure sits to the North West with brisk winds sunshine and occasional spells of rain. For the final four days the Sunday and Monday spells of rain with sunny spells and brisk winds. Tuesday and Wednesday suggests high pressure with sunshine and cloud with light winds.

Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome our featured photo is Dalmore by Laura NicIllInnein

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