Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 30th August to Saturday 4th September
The EC is suggesting that high pressure will dominate our weather for most of this time period listed above. Monday to Wednesday will be a mixture of sunshine and cloud with some decent and prolonged sunshine. Some light rain and drizzle at times. Winds would remain light. The high pressure would move further north for the Thursday and Friday according to the EC. A change would be on the cards for the final day of this time period the Saturday where the EC brings a deep area of low pressure to our far North West. This would result in a showery start to the day before a band of heavy rain moves across the Western Isles later in the day with blustery winds.
GFS – Monday 30th August to the Wednesday 8th September
The GFS holds the same pattern as EC for a large portion of this time period. Fine dry sunny and settled weather from Monday to Friday with light winds. Some spells of light rain and drizzle but mainly on the dry side. Feeling warm with plenty of sunshine and variable amounts of cloud. A slight change for the Friday with winds and cloud increasing. The Saturday would also be a blustery day with brisk winds sunshine and cloud along with a developing area of low pressure to the far west. For the final 4 days of the time period the GFS suggests an area of low pressure moves across the Western Isles brining some wet and windy weather with the risk of gales. A showery regime for the next two days and the final day another deep area of low pressure moves across the Western Isles bringing more wet and windy conditions. A long way off as yet but a more unsettled regime is looking possible for the start of September.
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