Good evening all and welcome to the shorter version of our long range forecast. The full in depth forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 6th September to Saturday 11th September
The EC is suggesting High pressure rebuilds across the UK. For us in the Western Isles we are going to see a mixture of sunshine and cloud with scattered showers on Monday. On Tuesday the isobars tighten a little but high pressure mainly dominates for us in the Western Isles we would see a mixture of sunshine and cloud with scattered showers with brisk winds. Weak areas of low pressure become dominate across the UK on Wednesday with a band of rain and showers moving across the Western Isles which would become heavy before clearing later in the day. Thursday and Friday a slack airflow across much of the UK with sunshine and cloud for us in the Western Isles with a band of rain moving in later in the day. Rain and showers across the large parts of the UK on Saturday. For us in the Western Isles we are going to see heavy overnight rain which will clear to showers later in the day. Feeling cooler.
GFS – Monday 6th September to the Wednesday 15th September
The GFS is suggesting high pressure builds across the UK with a band of rain moving across Scotland before clearing for us in the Western Isles we will see brisk winds with sunshine and cloud on Monday. Tuesday again high pressure will dominate across the UK with sunshine and cloud again with brisk winds for us in the Western Isles. Some light rain. Wednesday low pressure forms near Ireland and rain associated with the area of low pressure will bring heavy rain across the Western Isles throughout Wednesday. Thursday and Friday high pressure across the UK with sunshine and cloud. A mixture of sunshine and cloud for us in the Western isles some light rain but mainly dry. Saturday high pressure dominates across most of the UK but heavy rain moves across the Western Isles which could be persistent at times. The final 4 days of the time period will see spells of heavy rain and brisk winds. Possibly reaching gale force. The best day would be the Monday with sunshine and cloud. Things looking more unsettled in the longer range.
Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome, our featured photo is Traigh Iar in Harris by Mairi Ord.