Welcome to our long range forecast for the Western Isles. This is our twice weekly update covering up to two ahead. We look at trends and patterns. Usually posted on a Thursday and Sunday.
Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.
This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.
EC – Monday 15th November to Saturday 20th November
So the EC is suggesting that high pressure builds across the UK with overcast conditions along with brisk winds. Some scattered showers for the Monday. Onto Tuesday and the high pressure declines away and for us in the Western Isles, we are likely to see a showery start to the day with a band of rain moving in later in the day followed by showers behind and feeling colder. Moving into Wednesday low pressure moves across the North of Scotland. It will be a day of rain and showers for us in the Western isles. Squally and wintry at times. As we go into Thursday high pressure builds in but an area of low pressure moves into the South for us in the Western Isles a fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud with light winds. For the Friday high pressure moves away and bands of rain will move across the Western Isles becoming heavy at times. On to the Saturday, an area of low pressure moves across Scotland feeding further rain and wintry showers across the Western Isles.
GFS – Monday 15th November to Wednesday 24th November
So the GFS is suggesting that for the Monday high pressure across the UK with fine dry conditions for us in the Western Isles sunshine and cloud along with brisk winds. Tuesday a brisk airflow across the UK with spells of rain and showers moving across the islands. Wednesday the brisk airflow continues with rain and showers for us in the Western Isles but becoming fine and dry with sunshine and cloud. Onto Thursday high pressure sits to the South West of the UK but bands of rain will move across the Western isles with brisk winds. For the Friday high pressure builds across the UK with fine and dry conditions with sunshine and cloud along with brisk winds. Into the Sunday and the high pressure declines away. For us in the Western Isles, we are going to see low pressure bringing spells of rain and brisk winds. The rain will be heavy at times. For the final four days of the time period, there are some hints of colder and more wintry weather before turning more settled by Wednesday.
Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome. Our featured photo is Garry beach by Carol Ferguson.