Long range weather forecast for the Western Isles – 28th November

Welcome to our long range forecast for the Western Isles. This is our twice weekly update covering up to two ahead. We look at trends and patterns. Usually posted on a Thursday and Sunday.

Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF ( European Centre for medium range weather forecasts) which is based in Reading and the GFS (Global forecasting system) which is the American based global model.

This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.

EC – Thursday 2nd December to Tuesday 7th December

So the EC is showing for next Thursday that a showery airflow across the UK for us in the Western Isles we will see squally wintry showers these heavy at times. into the evening a band of rain will move across the island bringing rain, sleet and snow with increasing winds. Into Friday and Saturday and a similar pattern of rain and squally wintry showers along with brisk winds. Some longer spells of rain are possible for a time Friday evening. Sunday high pressure builds across the UK and the showers ease across the Western Isles. but a band of rain will move across the islands later in the day. On to the Monday and another showery day but a deep area of low pressure forms near Ireland and pushes heavy rain and strong winds across the Western Isles. The low pressure deepens with strong winds and heavy rain during Tuesday.

GFS  – Thursday 2nd December to Saturday 11th December

So the GFS is showing a cold airflow across the UK with wintry showers moving across the islands on Thursday. As we move into the Friday various areas of low pressure will move across the Western Isles bringing rain and wintry showers. For the Saturday a day of sunshine and showers these again wintry but fairly light winds. Into Sunday and high pressure builds in allowing for a fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud and light winds. For Monday and Tuesday, high pressure builds across the north of the UK with fine and dry sunny weather. For the final 4 days of the time period, we are going to see further areas of low pressure nothing too deep bringing rain and wintry showers.

Thanks for reading any feedback is welcome. Featured photo from Allan Keyte

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