So Christmas is two weeks tomorrow and I bring you my fourth white Christmas forecast for the Western Isles. Now at this stage we are still a long way off but we start looking at trends and signals. The GFS is now into model range for the big day.

Our first wintry image is of Scalpay lighthouse taken by Tia O’hara

So how are the trends looking?

The main trend for the middle of December is now high pressure dominating across the UK with little or no rain light winds. Cold icy conditions but very settled. We could see some brisk winds for us in the islands. There is some hints from the 3rd model run of the day today that we could see a break down to more unsettled weather with rain for Christmas day. The 2nd model run of today did not bring that break down and kept high pressure in control which would give us more of a chance of a frosty Christmas. The first model run of the day flirted with the idea of more wintry showers. So as you can see there is a lot of variation in play. I should be able to firm things up more with my next update the middle of next week.

Next photo is Crossbost taken by Christine M Morrison

So based on the latest model run information and the trends at this stage I am going to go for a 50% chance of Western Isles White Christmas.

Our final photo this update is Grimsay North Uist by Amy Cox

Thanks for reading